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How can we predict the costs and milestones of NGL technologies that rely upon unpredictable scientific breakthroughs?

The Lithography Workshop started in 1981 to try to break the “one-micron optical barrier,” so a limit has always been seen on the horizon. However, through i193 lithography, the science was already known so that we only had to solve engineering problems with incredible dilligence; can we really predict the costs and milestones of developing EUV and other NGL technologies that rely upon unpredictable scientific breakthroughs?
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